BY THE EDITOR
The die is cast. The Election Commission of India, on Monday, announced elections to five state Assemblies, which are to be held from early November till the very last day of that month, with results declared together on December 3. The states, where the elections will be held are, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and, closer home, in Mizoram. Coming as they do just a few months ahead of the Lok Sabha elections (slated for early 2024) with none other in between, and given that three of the states – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh – comprise a critical segment of the Hindi belt that significantly influence the outcome of general election, the natural tendency is to term the upcoming exercise as the “semi-final”; this would imply that winners in these states will likely also win the ticket to Delhi. That said, it has happened in the past when parties, which did well in such ‘semi-finals’, ended up on the losing side in the ‘final’. One would, therefore, have to wait for the ‘final’ to see who will rule India next.
Of the three Hindi belt states, the Congress rules in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is helming the government in Madhya Pradesh; the party had lost to the Congress in the 2018 election, but assumed power two years later, after 22 MLAs of the latter resigned. Surveys, so far, place the Congress comfortably in Chhattisgarh, while Madhya Pradesh appears to be there for anybody’s taking, which is not so good a commentary on governance in that state, and it will remain to be seen whether the electorate in Rajasthan will change their propensity to not return a party to power. ‘Semi-final’ or not, both the key players in these three states, Congress and BJP, acknowledge the importance of these elections, which explains the promises and guarantees – read freebies – that the two parties have rained on the states in the hope of being able to woo the voters for a stint in power.
While it is not necessary that the general election will follow trends set in Assembly elections, this time round, issues talked about in the run-up to the state elections, and which are likely to be continued until the period of silence dawns, will be carried over to the Lok Sabha election. The passage of the bill reserving seats in Parliament and state assemblies for women into law, and the more recent emergence of nationwide caste census demand, will certainly find place of prominence once the campaigning for the general election gets going; price rise and unemployment are two other issues that cut across Assembly and Parliament barriers. Given that, the pattern of voting in the Assembly elections could very well be witnessed in the Lok Sabha election. As for Mizoram, the electorate will have to contend with the fallout of the ethnic violence in neighbouring Manipur besides the issue of influx from Myanmar and the reported unceasing flow of drugs into the state. That the state finds itself in an unenviable financial mess is yet another concern of the electorate.