Pradeep Kapoor
Extensive campaign by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Uttar Pradesh countered the anti-incumbency against Yogi government which is evident from substantial fall in seats in 2022 polls as against 2017 elections.
There is a feeling in BJP rank and file that had Modi not campaigned the way he did it would have been very difficult for the party to counter anti-incumbency which saw over 20 sitting MLAs being refused entry in their constituencies by local people. The mega success of road show and outreach of PM Modi in his Lok Sabha constituency Varanasi also helped his party.
There was great anti-incumbency in the state due to farmers’ agitation, mishandling of corona during the second wave, migrant labourers’ movement, unemployment, stray cattle, and attacks on people from minority communities. Though opposition raised these issues from time to time, they could not prevent BJP from forming the government.
BJP successfully played kamandal card through aggressive Hindutva with repeated reference to Ayodhya, Kashi and Mathura. So much so that the Karnataka hijab controversy was used in UP polls to polarise the voters. Similarly BJP also played mandal card by mobilising non- Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalit voters which paid rich dividends in the elections.
Significantly enough, BJP took advantage of a large section of beneficiaries known as labharties getting free ration and money transfer in their accounts  through various central and state schemes. BJP also got the advantage from the shift of traditional BSP voters who were benefiting through free ration and money transfer.
Throughout the election campaign BSP was known as B team of BJP, so the original voters shifted to saffron brigade directly.
Though BJP registered decline in number of seats, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will remain face of Hindutva for BJP who would be required for 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The results have boosted the morale of BJP not only for Mission 2024 to get maximum seats in Lok Sabha from UP  but also to improve  position  in Rajya Sabha and face the Presidential poll due in a few months.
The results of UP Assembly polls must have shocked Samajwadi Party (SP) national President Akhilesh Yadav who was very confident of forming the government with the alliance partners. However, credit goes to the party and its leader for a big jump of more than 15 per cent votes and taking the tally to three times more than it was in 2017. Now the SP and its alliance partners have a good presence in UP to lead strong opposition against BJP in UP Assembly.
The results of the Assembly must have shocked Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi who despite her best efforts in campaign and great response to public meetings and road shows could not translate that into votes for party candidates. Congress Party will have to reinvent itself through new road map and strategy to revive the fortune of the party which ruled till 1989.
Bahujan Samaj Party also witnessed its worst performance in any election since its formation in 1984. BSP touched all-time low with only one seat and sharp decline in vote share. Due to strange compulsions, BSP national president and former chief minister Mayawati was seen advising Modi and Yogi governments during the last five years. For a person who was chief minister of UP four times, it was a strange behaviour of Mayawati who was more critical of Congress and SP than of ruling BJP.
These elections should also serve as a lesson for opposition party leaders to sit and think about how to strengthen their parties at the grassroots and relate to problems being faced by the people. The alliance for the sake of only an election does not win the confidence of people. IPA Service