Dr. Gyan Pathak
February 14, the day of Vidhan Sabha Election in Uttarakhand and Goa is now only a week ahead, but the people of both the states have still been putting the ruling BJP on the tenterhooks, as much as the other political parties. The worse, it seems, the BJP may be heading for greater political shocks.
 People at the ground level have been astounded, having seen what is going on among the political parties, and hence not emanating clear signal how they are going to behave while voting on February 14. Political loyalties of the many leaders in almost all political parties in both the states have become doubtful, which is bound to influence the voting pattern.
 Goa presents a peculiar situation. There are 40 seats in the legislative assembly. In the election 2017, Congress had won the largest number of 17 seats while the BJP had won only 13 seats. Horse trading enabled the BJP to form a government which is still the ruling party in the state. Switchover of the MLAs started at that time never ended during the whole five year term of the legislative assembly. It’s sort of a record that about 60 per cent of MLAs from various political parties (24 out of 40) deserted their parties to join others.
 Since only one or two MLAs can tilt the balance in formation of the government in the state, as we have seen earlier, every political party in the fray seems to be nursing great hope, in case of a hung assembly, which is most likely to be, and that may deliver a shock to the BJP that has broken other political parties and brought in largest number of defectors into its fold.
 Immediately after the 2017 elections, Mahohar Parrikar had won the vote of confidence with the help of Congress leader Vishwajit Rane who had left the house mid-way. He afterwards joined BJP, re-elected, and made a minister. Two other leaders deserted Congress within a year to join BJP.
 Mahohar Parrikar died in 2019, and thereafter Pramod Sawant became chief minister. Only a few months after, the BJP did not spare even its ally Maharashtra Gomantak Party, which was split into two, and two out of its three MLAs eventually joined the BJP.
 It does mean that Congress became weaker. Its leader Atanasio Monserrate won the seat held by Mahohar Parriker which went to bypoll after his death. Even then he along with his wife and eight other Congress MLAs ditched the people and joined BJP.
 Just on the eve of the present election, GFP’s MLA along with an independent joined BJP and it seemed BJP’s advantage. However, situation changed fast and even BJP MLAs, including Alina Saldanha and Michael Lobo, quit the party to join AAP and Congress. One BJP MLA Pravin Zantye left BJP for even MGP. Some Congress and NCP leaders even left their parties to join TMC. It indicates that ground level situation is still fluid.
 Uttarakhand has been historically known for political infighting, and this time is no exception. The ruing BJP has very high stake in the 70-member legislative assembly, since the party seems to be losing fast on the ground while the Congress seems to be considerably gaining.
 The BJP has been suffering from infighting ever since it came to power in 2017 which had become too intense in 2021 when Trivendra Singh Rawat was replaced by Tirath Singh Rawat as chief minister, and then again by Pushkar Singh Dhami recently. It indicates very high degree of infighting in the BJP. It is seriously damaging BJP’s prospect on the ground. Given the record of the state, such infighting may prove too costly for the BJP.
 Congress seems to be chief beneficiary of the infighting in the BJP, and it is possible that it may emerge as the largest political party in the state, provided that the party is able to translate the general discontent of the voters against the BJP rule. The sentiment of anti establishment among voters is clearly visible. Large number of voters seems to be in favour of the Congress, but the AAP and BSP are also set to gain considerable votes in a number of seats. A week ahead of the election, all indications are for a hung assembly.
 Uttarakhand and Goa are thus states to be watched keenly for the next couple of days. If the situation does not improve for the ruling BJP, the party is well nigh set to lose clear mandates in their favour in both the states. In case of hung assemblies, horse trading cannot be ruled out. Anti-BJP political parties must prepare to face that situation, because mere allegation on BJP resorting to horse trading may not work, as we had seen in Goa after the 2017 Vidhan Sabha Election. (IPA Service)